Where Are Democrats and Republicans Headed Next? These Primaries Will Tell the Story

Hotly contested primaries for Congress and governor next year will do more than select nominees for the 2026 midterm elections. They will also serve as early battlegrounds for the future direction of both major parties, as Democrats and Republicans reassess their identities, strategies and leadership after the 2024 presidential race.

Despite Democratic victories in several down-ballot contests this year, the party is still searching for clarity following its loss to President Donald Trump. Republicans, meanwhile, are grappling with how fully Trump’s dominance — and the MAGA movement he leads — should continue to define the GOP.

The outcomes of these primaries could shape not only the midterms, but also the contours of the 2028 presidential race. Here are the key themes and races to watch as primary season begins.

Democrats at a Crossroads

A Party Debating Its Future

Democrats are deeply divided over strategy, ideology and leadership style. At the core of the debate is a fundamental question: Should the party focus on winning back voters who have drifted away, or prioritize mobilizing new and disengaged voters?

That tension will be on display in Texas’ March 3 Senate primary. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has launched her bid by aggressively confronting Trump and arguing she can energize a “multiracial, multigenerational coalition.” State Rep. James Talarico, by contrast, is positioning himself as a bipartisan-minded candidate appealing to voters “hungry for sincerity, honesty and compassion.”

Testing the “Blue Wall”

Ideological divides are also emerging in Senate primaries across the Midwest, particularly in Michigan and Minnesota, where Democrats are testing competing theories for holding states that have recently shown Republican strength.

• Michigan:
  • Abdul El-Sayed, a former county health director, is running as a progressive champion of “Medicare for All,” backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders.
  • Mallory McMorrow, a state senator, is calling for a “new generation of leadership” with a pragmatic approach.
  • Rep. Haley Stevens, a leader in the center-left New Democrat Coalition, is emphasizing her record flipping a Republican-held district and attacking Trump’s trade policies.
• Minnesota:
  • Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, endorsed by Sanders and other progressive leaders, is running to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith.
  • Rep. Angie Craig, who represents a swing district, is urging Democrats to remain a “big tent” party and pushing back against calls to defund police.

California’s Wide-Open Governor’s Race

A high-stakes battle is also unfolding in California’s governor’s race, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party.

Leading Democratic contenders are carving out distinct lanes:

• Xavier Becerra, former HHS secretary, is centering his campaign on health care.
• Katie Porter is leaning into progressive populism.
• Tom Steyer has shifted from climate activism to affordability and corporate accountability.
• Eric Swalwell is highlighting his clashes with Trump.
• Antonio Villaraigosa is emphasizing executive experience.

Trump’s Grip on the GOP

Loyalty as a Litmus Test

Across Republican primaries, loyalty to Trump remains the defining issue — and in some races, the dominant one.

In Kentucky, Trump has endorsed Navy veteran Ed Gallrein against Rep. Thomas Massie, who has drawn the president’s ire for opposing key elements of Trump’s agenda.

In Georgia, Trump has thrown his support behind Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the gubernatorial primary, elevating him in a crowded field. Jones previously signed onto a controversial slate of pro-Trump electors after the 2020 election.

Senate Races Under the Microscope

Nowhere is Trump’s influence more apparent than in Louisiana, where Sen. Bill Cassidy — one of the few Republicans who voted to convict Trump after his second impeachment — is seeking re-election.

Cassidy’s challengers, including state Treasurer John Fleming and state Sen. Blake Miguez, have closely aligned themselves with Trump, framing Cassidy’s impeachment vote as a betrayal. Cassidy has since sought to mend fences, including backing Trump’s choice of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for health secretary despite concerns over Kennedy’s anti-vaccine views.

Democrats’ Anti-Establishment Revolt

Generational Change Takes Center Stage

On the Democratic left, frustration with party leadership — and aging incumbents — is fueling a wave of primary challenges.

In Maine, Gov. Janet Mills, 77, is facing progressive veteran Graham Platner, 41, in a Senate primary to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Mills, backed by party leadership, has pledged to serve only one term if elected, citing age concerns. Platner, endorsed by Sanders, argues voters want a clean break from establishment politics.

Progressive groups are also targeting incumbents in several House primaries, including:

• North Carolina: Nida Allam vs. Rep. Valerie Foushee
• Michigan: Donovan McKinney vs. Rep. Shri Thanedar
• Tennessee: Justin Pearson vs. Rep. Steve Cohen
• Colorado: Melat Kiros vs. Rep. Diana DeGette

In New York, challengers to Reps. Ritchie Torres and Dan Goldman are criticizing their ties to pro-Israel lobbying groups, including AIPAC.

MAGA Purity Tests

Beyond Trump-centered vendettas, many GOP primaries are testing how fully MAGA ideology has reshaped the party.

• Texas: Multiple challengers are targeting Sen. John Cornyn, forcing him to emphasize his alignment with Trump despite past criticisms.
• Arizona: Trump has unusually endorsed two candidates — Rep. Andy Biggs and Karrin Taylor Robson — in the GOP governor’s race.
• Kentucky: Candidates vying to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell are racing to prove their conservative credentials.
• South Carolina: A crowded gubernatorial primary has sparked fierce competition for Trump-aligned voters.

Several House Republicans, including Tony Gonzales and Dan Crenshaw, are also facing right-wing primary challengers testing their loyalty on issues such as guns, Ukraine and federal spending.

An Early Look at 2028

Many primaries are doubling as early proving grounds for potential presidential contenders.

• Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, widely viewed as a 2028 prospect, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in the Senate primary.
• In Minnesota, endorsements from national figures such as Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Ruben Gallego have revealed early fault lines among future Democratic hopefuls.
• Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has jumped into a competitive House primary in a key battleground district.
• On the Republican side, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is testing his influence by backing Derek Dooley in a tense Senate primary — a race that could signal Kemp’s standing with GOP voters ahead of 2028.

Bottom Line

From ideological battles and generational clashes to loyalty tests and presidential ambitions, next year’s primaries will offer some of the clearest signals yet about where both parties are heading — and who may lead them next.