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Petrol importation remained the primary source of fuel supply in Nigeria throughout 2025, accounting for 62.47 per cent of total Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumption, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
This dominance persisted despite the commencement of operations and gradual ramp-up in output by domestic refineries, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, alongside state-owned and modular refineries.
Imports Still Lead Despite Local Refining Push
An analysis of the NMDPRA’s latest Midstream and Downstream Sector Factsheet shows that Nigeria consumed approximately 18.97 billion litres of petrol in 2025. Of this volume, 11.85 billion litres were supplied through imports by oil marketing companies, underlining the market’s continued reliance on foreign fuel sources.
Domestic refineries contributed 7.54 billion litres, representing 37.53 per cent of total consumption.
The figures were calculated using daily average consumption across each month and are based on volumes trucked into the domestic market.
Dangote Refinery Yet to Fully Displace Imports
The data underscore Nigeria’s lingering dependence on petrol imports, even as the Dangote refinery—currently the country’s only large-scale operational refinery—steadily increased supply during the year.
While the refinery was expected to significantly cut import volumes, regulatory data show that imports remained dominant in 2025 due to:
- Gradual ramp-up of refining operations
- Crude supply and logistics constraints
- Demand volatility following full petrol price deregulation
Import Tariff May Shift Market in 2026
Petrol imports could decline sharply in 2026 if the Federal Government implements a 15 per cent import tariff on PMS, expected to take effect in the first quarter of 2025, based on a policy memo approved by President Bola Tinubu.
A Legacy of Import Dependence
For decades, Nigeria—Africa’s largest crude oil producer—relied almost entirely on imported petrol due to the prolonged underperformance of its state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. This dependence deepened as the facilities became largely dormant, forcing the country to rely on imports funded by scarce foreign exchange and sustained for years through a costly subsidy regime.
The market structure began to change in late 2024 with the launch of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, widely seen as a turning point for Nigeria’s downstream sector.
2025: First Full Year of Large-Scale Local Supply
The year 2025 marked the first full year of large-scale domestic PMS supply, limiting year-on-year comparisons. Between October and December 2024, total petrol consumption stood at 4.77 billion litres, with imports accounting for 3.61 billion litres, while domestic refineries supplied 1.17 billion litres.
The latest NMDPRA factsheet provides one of the clearest regulatory snapshots yet of Nigeria’s petrol market in a post-subsidy environment—highlighting both progress in domestic supply and persistent structural challenges.
Dangote Accounts for Nearly All Local PMS Supply
A breakdown of the data shows that the Dangote refinery supplied virtually all domestically refined petrol in 2025, delivering between 17 million and 32 million litres per day, depending on the month, and a total of 7.54 billion litres for the year.
Based on its supply framework with regulators, the refinery was expected to deliver 600 million litres monthly, or 7.2 billion litres annually. However, actual deliveries fell short by 336 million litres, about 4.7 per cent below target, despite improved output toward year-end.
In December 2025, domestic supply peaked at 32 million litres per day, with total monthly deliveries of 992 million litres, signalling improving operational stability.
Consumption Trends: A Volatile Year
Nigeria’s petrol consumption fluctuated widely throughout 2025:
- January: 1.60 billion litres
- February: 1.41 billion litres
- May peak: 1.69 billion litres
- September low: 1.31 billion litres
- December high: 1.97 billion litres
Overall, consumption rose by 23.7 per cent from January to December, driven by seasonal demand, logistics dynamics, and evolving pricing conditions.
Imports Track Demand, Remain Dominant
Petrol imports mirrored consumption trends and remained the dominant supply source:
- May: Imports hit 1.20 billion litres, meeting about 71 per cent of demand
- November: Imports surged to 1.56 billion litres, nearly 98 per cent of total consumption
- December: Imports eased to 1.31 billion litres, still accounting for about two-thirds of monthly demand
Domestic Supply Improves, Ends Year Strong
Domestic refinery supply showed gradual but uneven growth:
- Fell steadily from January to July
- Rebounded from August
- Surged sharply in December, rising 69.6 per cent month-on-month to 992 million litres, the strongest performance of the year
December recorded the narrowest gap between imports and domestic supply, as daily consumption climbed to 63.7 million litres and Dangote ramped up output.
Outlook
Despite notable gains in domestic refining capacity, Nigeria’s petrol market in 2025 remained heavily import-dependent. While the Dangote refinery has begun reshaping supply dynamics, regulatory data show that sustained investment, stable crude supply, and supportive policy implementation will be critical to significantly reducing imports in the coming years.
