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Despite a national installed capacity of 13,625MW, electricity generation in Nigeria has plunged to about 3,000 megawatts (MW), pushing more homes and businesses into darkness during the festive season.
Key Highlights
- National grid crashes to ~3,000MW
- Over ₦4 trillion debt crippling GenCos
- 8,229MW of installed capacity idle in Q2 2025
- Poor remittance blamed for worsening power crisis
Nigeria’s long-standing electricity crisis has worsened, with grid output falling sharply even as consumers grapple with higher tariffs and unreliable supply. On Tuesday, power generation averaged just 3,000MW, far below the country’s installed capacity of over 13,000MW.
This decline comes despite assurances from the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, that electricity supply would be maintained at an average of 5,000MW, particularly for Band A and B customers paying higher tariffs.
Grid Collapse Linked to Gas Pipeline Explosion
The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) attributed the sharp drop in generation to the recent explosion on the Escravos–Lagos gas pipeline (ELP). In a statement, NISO said power supply should improve within 24 to 48 hours, noting that repair works are ongoing by the Nigerian Gas Processing and Transportation Company (NGPTC), a subsidiary of NNPC.
However, grid data paints a grim picture. While generation stood at about 3,200MW by 5:00 p.m. on Tuesday from 17 active power plants, output fell further to 2,652.05MW by 6:00 p.m., according to reports from 13 generation companies.
Power Allocation Across DisCos
Data from the Nigerian Electricity Grid (NIGGRID) shows that total electricity allocation to distribution companies (DisCos) stood at 3,240MW as of 5:57 p.m. on Tuesday.
- Abuja Disco: 496MW
- Ikeja Disco: 489MW
- Eko Disco: 417MW
- Ibadan Disco: 388MW
- Benin Disco: 264MW
- Enugu Disco: 252MW
- Port Harcourt Disco: 230MW
- Kano Disco: 218MW
- Kaduna Disco: 209MW
- Jos Disco: 183MW
- Yola Disco: 94MW (lowest)
Despite financial support from the World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), and a $2.3 billion Nigeria–Germany power deal aimed at delivering an additional 7,000MW, millions of Nigerians are likely to spend Christmas in darkness.
Over 60% of Capacity Idle in Q2 2025
Fresh data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and NISO reveal that more than 60 per cent of Nigeria’s installed generation capacity was unavailable for dispatch in the second quarter of 2025.
Although the grid-connected installed capacity stands at 13,625MW, average available generation during the period was just 5,395.72MW, translating to a plant availability factor (PAF) of 39.6 per cent. This means about 8,229MW remained idle.
₦5 Trillion Yearly Revenue Loss
Beyond the power outages, the economic toll is massive. Using conservative NERC-aligned pricing, analysis shows that the stranded capacity results in about ₦415 billion in lost revenue every month, amounting to nearly ₦5 trillion annually.
This figure mirrors the sector’s mounting debt burden and helps explain the persistent liquidity crisis choking generation companies and gas suppliers.
Gas-Fired Plants at the Heart of the Crisis
Gas-fired plants, which account for over 70 per cent of Nigeria’s installed capacity, are the worst affected. Many thermal plants operated far below capacity in Q2, while others produced no power at all.
Daily grid records for December show repeated instances where at least 15 grid-connected plants recorded zero output, including:
- Alaoji NIPP
- Olorunsogo NIPP
- Omoku
- Sapele Steam
- Rivers IPP
- Ihovbor NIPP
- Trans-Amadi
Even operational plants performed poorly. Delta Power Station (900MW capacity) averaged just 440.83MW, while Olorunsogo 1 saw availability drop from 48.3% in Q1 to 41.17% in Q2.
Odokpani NIPP declined even more sharply, falling from 55.5% to 35.72% within one quarter. In a stark illustration of the crisis, Alaoji NIPP recorded a PAF of zero, dispatching no electricity throughout the period.
